Principles, Results, and Prospects

Francis Halzen.
2026 Nobel Prize in Physics
IceCube and the discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos.
\(1\,\mathrm{PeV} = 10^{15}\,\mathrm{eV}\)
in a single neutrino
a billion times a neutrino from the Sun
over a hundred times a proton in the LHC
Not nuclear fusion. Then what? And where?
Sensor positions: IceCube geometry · light pattern modelled · Bert and Ernie: IceCube 2013 · Big Bird: IceCube 2014, position illustrative

Moisei Markov.

Kenneth Greisen. Undated portrait via C. Spiering.
1960: Markov and Greisen, independently. A large target already exists in nature.
M. A. Markov, Rochester conference, 1960, p. 578.

DUMAND workshop, 1976. John Learned at the board; Jed Hirota (left), Dick Davisson (right). Photo: Anatoly Petrukhin, via IceCube.
DUMAND, near Hawaii: the first deep-ocean attempt
Other routes kept going
“Congratulations for winning the 3-string race!”
Francis Halzen to Christian Spiering
NT36, DUMAND’s TRIAD and AMANDA: competing routes to a working array.
DUMAND Collaboration, astro-ph/9412019; C. Spiering, Eur. Phys. J. H 37, 515 (2012), arXiv:1207.4952.
Atmospheric neutrinos showed that Markov’s method works, in a lake and in ice.

First IceCube construction season, 2004–2005. IceCube/NSF historical archive.
C. Spiering, historical review (2024), slides 29–31; Baikal detector paper; IceCube timeline.
A \(1\,\mathrm{PeV}\) muon neutrino in today’s mean baryonic matter
\[ \bar n_{b,0}\simeq0.25\,\mathrm{m^{-3}} =2.5\times10^{-7}\,\mathrm{cm^{-3}} \]
\[ \sigma_{\nu N}^{\mathrm{CC+NC}} \simeq9.5\times10^{-34}\,\mathrm{cm^2} \]
About one nucleon per four cubic metres.
\[ \lambda_{\nu N,0}=\frac{1}{\bar n_{b,0}\sigma_{\nu N}} \simeq4.2\times10^{39}\,\mathrm{cm} \]
\[ \lambda_{\nu N,0}\simeq4.4\times10^{21}\,\mathrm{ly} \]
Observable diameter today: \(D_{\rm obs}\simeq93\times10^9\,\mathrm{ly}\).
\[ \frac{\lambda_{\nu N,0}}{D_{\rm obs}}\simeq5\times10^{10} \]
Present-epoch \(\nu N\) estimate ignoring the Universe evolution. PDG baryon density; CSMS cross sections, Table I.
Full transport: V. A. Allakhverdyan (CT10nlo, PREM, detector 1 km deep), redrawn · V. A. Allakhverdyan, dissertation (2026), Fig. 4.20 · Allakhverdyan, Zavyalov & Naumov (2026), Fig. 9
\[ 1\,\mathrm{PeV}=10^6\,\mathrm{GeV} \]
Horizontal axis: zenith angle.
\(90^\circ\): near the horizon.
\(180^\circ\): through Earth’s centre.
Colour: flux at the detector over flux entering the Earth.
Dashed: without regeneration,
\[ e^{-N_A\,\sigma_{\rm tot}(E)\,X(\theta)}. \]
Neutral currents do not remove a neutrino; they move it to lower energy. With regeneration the ratio depends on the incident spectrum.
Muon-neutrino interaction, 1 TeV · NTSim/Geant4 secondaries, LightHit radiative transfer in water · glow = expected photoelectrons, colour = first-light time · not sampled hits, not observed data · light front illustrative
Electron-neutrino interaction, 100 GeV · NTSim/Geant4 secondaries, LightHit radiative transfer in water · glow = expected photoelectrons, colour = first-light time · not sampled hits, not observed data · light front illustrative
Measured PMT signals; reconstructed track; illustrative cone. © KM3NeT. Official event display.

Bert and Ernie, the first PeV cascades: deposited energies \(1.04\pm0.16\) and \(1.14\pm0.17\,\mathrm{PeV}\). IceCube Collaboration / IceCube–NSF · IceCube (2013)
Accelerated protons collide with nuclei in dense gas.
\[ pp\longrightarrow\pi^{\pm},\,\pi^0+X \]
Possible targets: a stripped stellar envelope or a gas cloud in the jet.
The gas density and the proton residence time control the interaction yield.
Accelerated protons interact with a radiation field.
\[ p\gamma\longrightarrow\pi^{\pm},\,\pi^0+X \]
Possible targets: synchrotron photons in the jet, or photons from the accretion disc and its surroundings.
The pion-production threshold depends on photon energy and collision angle.
\[pp\ \text{or}\ p\gamma\ \longrightarrow\pi^\pm,\,\pi^0+X\]
Charged pion and muon
\[ \begin{aligned} \pi^+&\to\mu^++\nu_\mu\\[0.5em] \mu^+&\to e^++\nu_e+\bar\nu_\mu \end{aligned} \]
Neutral pion
\[\pi^0\to\gamma+\gamma\]
Neutrinos and photons share the pion-production energy budget.
Charge-conjugate chain for \(\pi^-\) · Ahlers & Halzen (2018)
\[pp:\quad N_{\pi^+}:N_{\pi^-}:N_{\pi^0}\simeq1:1:1\]
\[ E_\nu^2\Phi_\nu(E_\nu)\simeq\frac32 E_\gamma^2\Phi_\gamma(E_\gamma), \qquad E_\gamma\simeq2E_\nu \]
At production: \(pp\) benchmark, all neutrino flavours and both signs.
Photon absorption and cascading modify the comparison with observed spectra.
Neutrinos and photons share the pion-production energy budget.
Conversion: Ahlers & Murase (2014) · absorption computed with the EBL of Domínguez et al. (2011) and the CMB · cascade shape schematic, energy conserved · Murase, Ahlers & Lacki (2013), Murase, Guetta & Ahlers (2016)
28 events · 662 live days
\[30–1200\,\mathrm{TeV}\]
Deposited energy.
White points: data.
Blue + red: atmospheric backgrounds.
Orange: signal + background.
\[4.1\sigma\]
Benchmark atmospheric hypothesis.
2010–2012 sample and fitted spectrum · Redrawn from the vector artwork of IceCube, Science (2013), Fig. 4
Direction, energy and veto response constrain the background hypothesis together. · Redrawn from the vector artwork
April 2018–March 2024
18 upward-going cascades
\[E_{\mathrm{sh}}>15\,\mathrm{TeV}\]
Expected atmospheric background:
\[2.8\pm1.0\ \text{events}\]
\[5.1\sigma\]
Points: data · Stacked: fitted signal and backgrounds · Digitized from Baikal-GVD (2025), Fig. 2
Per flavour, \(\nu+\bar\nu\) · Published 2025 comparison · Blue IceCube points are preliminary · Digitized from Fig. 4

IceCube Collaboration, Science (2023) · Diffuse Galactic emission: \(4.5\sigma\)
ANTARES, 2023: a mild hint of TeV neutrinos from the inner Galactic ridge.
8 cascades above 200 TeV
They crowd towards the Galactic plane.
Baikal-GVD: \(p=1.4\times10^{-2}\)
With IceCube: \(p=3.4\times10^{-4}\)
V. A. Allakhverdyan et al. (Baikal-GVD) with Y. Y. Kovalev, A. V. Plavin, D. V. Semikoz, S. V. Troitsky · ApJ 982, 73 (2025) · Redrawn from Table 1; test of Fig. 1 recomputed
Model Galaxy (illustrative) · Baikal-GVD cascades above 200 TeV and the published shuffling test

ESA/Hubble & NASA, L. C. Ho, D. Thilker
13.1 years
\[4.0\sigma\]
After catalogue trials.
Seyfert 2
A dust-obscured active nucleus.
Hubble (2025) · IceCube Collaboration · Redrawn from 2026 analysis, Fig. 2
Blue: 2022 neutrino fit.
Orange: gamma-ray data and limits.
Violet: core models.
The photon spectrum constrains where pion production can occur.
Historical comparison · \(\nu_\mu+\bar\nu_\mu\), \(95\%\) fit band · Redrawn from IceCube, Science (2022), Fig. 4
All flavours · NGC 1068: \(\Phi_\nu(E)\propto E^{-\gamma}\), \(\gamma=3.4\pm0.2\) · IceCube Collaboration · Redrawn from the vector artwork
22 September 2017
IceCube-170922A
Most probable energy
\[E_\nu\sim290\,\mathrm{TeV}\]
Fermi-LAT + MAGIC
A flaring blazar in the neutrino direction.
\(\sim3\sigma\) association
IceCube Collaboration · Multimessenger observations, Science (2018)
13 February 2023
ARCA · 21 detection units
Parent neutrino
\[E_\nu\sim220\,\mathrm{PeV}\]
KM3NeT Collaboration · Nature (2025)
Muon at the detector
\[E_\mu=120^{+110}_{-60}\,\mathrm{PeV}\]
\(68\%\) confidence interval
Parent neutrino
Median: \(220\,\mathrm{PeV}\)
Central \(68\%\): \(110–790\,\mathrm{PeV}\)
Assuming \(\Phi_\nu(E)\propto E^{-2}\).
Drawn from the numbers in the text of KM3NeT, Nature (2025) · Their Fig. 2 (CC BY-NC-ND) is kept unmodified for questions
South Pole, Antarctic ice
IceCube: \(1\,\mathrm{km}^3\), operating.
Upgrade: 5 new strings, installed in 2026.
Gen2: \(8\,\mathrm{km}^3\) optical array, proposed.
Measurement: more high-energy events; improved calibration and a radio extension.
Mediterranean Sea
ARCA: \(\sim1\,\mathrm{km}^3\) for neutrino astronomy.
ORCA: \(\sim7\,\mathrm{Mt}\) for neutrino oscillations.
Full design: 230 / 115 strings.
Construction and data taking.
Measurement: source searches with ARCA; oscillations with ORCA.

Artist’s impression · Edward Berbee/Nikhef · KM3NeT
Lake Baikal, fresh water
2026: 16 clusters, operating.
Reported effective volume: \(0.8\,\mathrm{km}^3\).
Modular growth through winter deployment.
Measurement: independent diffuse spectra and northern-site source searches.
South China Sea
Design: \(7.5\,\mathrm{km}^3\), 1,211 strings.
Sensors: hybrid PMT + SiPM modules.
R&D and pathfinder programme.
Design goal: photon timing and directional information from hybrid sensors.
China + Russia
Design: \(\sim30\,\mathrm{km}^3\).
Sensors: 20-inch PMTs.
The Baikal option, B-HUNT, is the next slide.
South China Sea
Design: \(10\,\mathrm{km}^3\), 1,200 strings.
Sensors: multi-PMT optical modules.
Proposal and hardware R&D.
Design goal: high-energy source searches with a large multi-PMT array.
Russia + China · Baikal-GVD Collaboration with IHEP (Beijing) · JINR (2026) · IHEP
The ice is a platform: strings are deployed from the frozen lake every winter.
Water: light scatters less than in ice, so cascade directions are sharper.
Northern site: the Galactic Centre is below the horizon \(75\%\) of the day.
A gamma-ray partner: LHAASO watches the same northern sky.
Alerts and follow-up: work in progress.
Questions on the energy axis · Spectrum: IceCube (2026) · Glashow: IceCube (2021) · KM3-230213A: KM3NeT (2025)
We have found where to look. Next we must resolve the crowd.
Positions: Baikal-GVD source list (2026) · Evidence: result slides of this lecture
\(\nu_\mu+N\longrightarrow\mu^-+X.\)
\(\nu_e+N\longrightarrow e^-+X.\)
Gold: charge. Blue circles: wavefronts. White: common front. Cyan arrows: light.
Light gets ahead — \(v<c/n\)
The particle gets ahead — \(v>c/n\)
The charge disturbs the medium. A fast charge leaves a common wavefront behind.
Light goes across the front — not along it.
\[ \cos\theta_C=\frac{c}{nv} \qquad\Longrightarrow\qquad \theta_C\simeq41^\circ\ \text{in water, for }v\simeq c. \]
IceCube

One \(10\,\mathrm{inch}\) PMT.
IceCube/NSF.
KM3NeT

\(31\) three-inch PMTs.
Courtesy KM3NeT.
Baikal-GVD

One \(10\,\mathrm{inch}\) PMT.
Baikal-GVD; supplied by DN.
TRIDENT

PMTs + SiPMs. Prototype.
TRIDENT / TDLI, SJTU.
Predict a time for each sensor
\[ \cos\theta_C=\frac{1}{\beta n_{\rm phase}},\qquad t_i^{\rm pred}=t_0+\frac{s_i}{\beta c}+\frac{n_{\rm group}D_i}{c}. \]
\(s_i\): muon distance from the known crossing point to emission.
\(D_i\): photon path from emission to the sensor.
The cone uses the phase index; flight time uses the group index.
Find the direction that agrees with the signals
\[ S=\frac{1}{2\sigma_t^2}\sum_{i,k} \left(t_{ik}^{\rm obs}-t_i^{\rm pred}\right)^2 \longrightarrow\min_{\theta,\phi,t_0}. \]
Every detected photoelectron contributes a measured time.
Here: known crossing point, straight muon, homogeneous medium. Only direction and time offset are fitted — not vertex or energy.
How does a wrong model of the medium change the inferred direction?
Synthetic teaching model, not an experiment’s reconstruction or an angular-resolution forecast. The arrow is the muon’s direction of travel; the source direction is opposite.
| Telescope | Optical background | Pulses / PMT | Muon-dominated samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| IceCube | PMT + glass noise | \(0.56\,\mathrm{kHz}\) · 10-inch | \(2.7\,\mathrm{kHz}\) · IC86 DAQ |
| KM3NeT | \(^{40}\mathrm K\) + bioluminescence | \(\sim7\,\mathrm{kHz}\) · 3-inch | \(\sim1\,\mathrm{Hz}\) · ARCA6 reconstructed |
| Baikal-GVD | Water luminescence | \(20–100\,\mathrm{kHz}\) · 10-inch | \(\sim3\,\mathrm{Hz/cluster}\) · reconstructed |
Pulses, DAQ triggers and reconstructed events are different counting levels. IceCube · KM3NeT · Baikal-GVD
\(1\,\mathrm{km^3}\) water · downward \(2\pi\) · all flavours, \(\nu+\bar\nu\) · CC+NC · before selection.
Near the horizon: short Earth chord.
Upward: Earth absorption at high energy.
Downward: atmospheric-muon rejection.
\(A_{\mathrm{eff}}\) includes interaction, propagation and event selection.
\[ N=T\sum_\alpha\int dE_\nu\,d\Omega\, \Phi_\alpha(E_\nu,\Omega)\,A_{\mathrm{eff},\alpha}(E_\nu,\Omega) \]
Illustrative point-source selection · Redrawn, digitized from Spiering (2026), Fig. 6
A specific sample
Historical HESE selection, 2010–2012 · Redrawn, digitized from IceCube (2013), Fig. 7
| Event | Light constrains | Parent-neutrino inference |
|---|---|---|
| Contained \(\nu_e\) CC | Electromagnetic + hadronic deposits | \(E_{\mathrm{dep}}\simeq E_\nu\), after response calibration |
| Through-going \(\mu\) | Muon energy losses inside the array | \(E_\mu\) at the detector, then a spectrum-dependent \(E_\nu\) distribution |
| Neutral current | Hadronic deposit | \(E_{\mathrm{dep}}\sim yE_\nu\); outgoing neutrino is unseen |
Historical HESE reconstruction (2013): tracks \(<1^\circ\); cascades \(10–15^\circ\).
Quoted median angular scales above about \(50\,\mathrm{TeV}\). Neutrino–muon kinematics adds a separate spread.
\(y\): inelasticity · IceCube reconstruction (2013)
988 tracks · 92 directions · April 2019–March 2024
\(E^{-2}\) spectrum · \(90\%\) CL · No significant catalogue excess · Baikal-GVD (2026), Table 1
Real-time alerts and multimessenger follow-up with Baikal-GVD: work in progress.
Symbols: source limits · Lines: expected sensitivity · Baikal-GVD (2026), Fig. 2 · Limits from Table 1, sensitivities redrawn from the vector artwork
Matched spectral assumptions · Baikal-GVD Collaboration (2026), Fig. 3 · Redrawn from the vector artwork; Baikal-GVD limits from Table 1
Site overview · October 2026 · coastlines: Natural Earth
Geometry only, not sensitivity · IceCube also observes the southern sky with starting and contained events.
IceCube · 7 years
ANTARES · 9 years
Published joint analysis, not a next-generation projection · Redrawn, digitized from ANTARES & IceCube (2020), Fig. 2
